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What was the result of the US midterm elections?
In the end, it wasn’t even close. The tide of Democratic support grew from a wave to a full-blown tsunami. In a clear rejection of Donald Trump and his administration, the Democrats won electoral battles from Texas to Kansas, regions long held by the Republicans. With two Senate races – Mississippi and Alaska – still to be called, the Democrats stand on 54 seats to just 44 for the Republicans. Mississippi, a state that voted for Trump by more than 22 points just two years ago, might return a Democratic senator for the first time in 44 years.
How historic is the result of the US midterm election?
Seismic. Across the country, swings of 20–30 points redrew the map, despite Republican efforts to gerrymander (that is, to redraw a district’s boundaries to manufacture an electoral majority for one’s own party). Voters elected a Democratic senator in Texas for the first time since 1988, in South Carolina for the first time since 1998, and in Kansas for the first time since 1932, during the Great Depression.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed overcame the President’s mockery of his name and background to become the first ever Muslim US senator. Over in Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black female governor in US history. Meanwhile, Chris Pappas became the first openly gay man elected to the US Senate.
What has Trump said about the election result?
Despite months of campaigning in which he repeatedly told voters to act as though he were on the ballot, the President announced that his party had lost because he was, in fact, not on the ballot.
While midterm elections are usually bruising experiences for the incumbent president’s party, Trump’s historic unpopularity has clearly damaged the rest of his party. The costly effects of his tariffs and of the war against Iran have bitten consumers across America, with inflation and gas prices dominating the run-up to the election. Two in five voters named the economy as their top issue, while one in three opted for the state of democracy – a nod to the perceived corruption endemic in the administration.
Will Trump now be less powerful?
In losing control of both Houses, the President has become a ‘lame duck’, meaning he can no longer pass legislation through Congress and must instead rely on executive orders.
But here’s the catch: Trump has never relied much on the slow and often painful process of passing bills through Congress. He has always preferred executive orders. In fact, in the first 100 days of his second term, Trump signed almost as many executive orders as Joe Biden did in his entire four-year term.
You might be wondering whether Democrats will be able to pass their own bills through Congress to counteract Trump’s executive orders. That seems unlikely. Trump has promised to use his veto powers as head of the executive to full effect. To override a veto, Democrats would need the support of two-thirds of both Houses – all but impossible given the polarisation in both chambers.
One power that Congress does hold over the President is the ‘power of the purse’. In effect, Congress could withhold funds from the Trump administration until it does as Congress wishes. One potential example would be withholding money from the Department of Defense until Trump agrees to end the Iran war.
Another concern will be the psychological effect on Trump of being a ‘lame duck’ president and reaching the twilight of his political career. Previous presidents in this position, on both the left and right, have used their last two years to try to build a legacy, usually through foreign policy. Given Trump’s chaotic and erratic approach to foreign policy, this could prove worrisome.
How might this affect the wars in Iran and Ukraine?
Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer was quick to tell reporters that he would use the power of the purse to pressure Trump into ending the Iran war. In the aftermath of the results, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy struck a hopeful tone, saying that Democrats “speak about renewing the connection between the US and Europe… there is a hope that a balance of power will emerge and we will receive more support”.
The relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy has long been strained, with the now-infamous Oval Office spat a particularly ugly flashpoint. However, unlike on Iran, where it can simply withhold funding, Congress may struggle to pass legislation to increase aid to Ukraine because of the President’s veto powers. Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, was sceptical: “I don’t think that the situation will change radically, because foreign policy will remain in the hands of the president.”
Will the Democrats impeach Trump?
One of the defining chapters of Trump’s first term as president was the two ultimately unsuccessful attempts to impeach him and remove him from office. The House of Representatives adopted two articles of impeachment in 2019 and a third in 2021, but the Senate acquitted Trump each time. This time, Trump has been quick to warn Democrats that impeaching him would “destroy them”.
But with the President now a ‘lame duck’, there is a suggestion amongst senior Democrats that Congress will instead focus on rooting out corruption and cronyism from those around Trump, including his cabinet and some members of his family. One of these is Jared Kushner, the commander-in-chief’s son-in-law, who has allegedly used his position to broker deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
In a sign of things to come, Robert Garcia, the Democratic congressman who looks set to become the next chair of the House Oversight Committee, told Republicans on Tuesday to “lawyer up”. He promised to investigate Elon Musk’s role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), abuses by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, and he assured onlookers that work had already begun some months ago.
What will this result mean for the 2028 Presidential Election?
Following the results, some senior Republicans began distancing themselves from the unpopular occupant of the White House – most notably Vice-President JD Vance, who was quick to blame his party’s abysmal performance on the Iran war.
Vance, who has never been shy about his presidential ambitions, emerges from this campaign damaged by his association with Trump and by his support for Vivek Ramaswamy, who released an offensive advert against Amy Acton in the Ohio gubernatorial race. Elsewhere, the outgoing Florida governor and fellow presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis was quick to point out that his state had kept a Republican senator and governor, despite huge advances for the Democrats.
For the Democrats, there is still a lot of hard work ahead. The veto power of the US president will limit what Democrats can tangibly achieve over the next two years. If they are seen to fail to improve people’s lives despite such a sweeping victory, they may well be punished come 2028.
However, the emergence of James Talarico as the new senator for Texas and Jon Ossoff’s convincing re-election in Georgia may offer the party hope for a new generation of Democrats. Ossoff, for one, looks like the new favourite in the betting markets to secure the Democratic nomination, and the assured speech he gave after his victory offers some clues as to why. Whatever comes next, two years is a lifetime in politics, and the Democrats must continue to deliver.