UK membership most popular EU policy in all UK seats bar four, megapoll finds

Full EU membership is the most popular UK-EU relations policy amongst voters in every Great British parliamentary constituency – bar four Reform UK-held seats shows clear demand for closer EU relationship at the next general election, a new megapoll has found.

The UK restoring our EU membership is the most popular UK-EU relations policy in every Great British parliamentary constituency – bar four Reform UK-held seats – and in every British nation and region, fresh MRP polling by YouGov with Best for Britain has found.

The new seat-level MRP polling, which quizzed respondents on which UK-EU relations policy they most wanted the UK government to propose, was carried out by YouGov across a sample of almost 12,000 GB adults and commissioned by Best for Britain. The findings come at a vital time as the government shapes its policy on Europe ahead of the next UK-EU summit, the Labour Party’s conference in Liverpool, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s upcoming speech in which he is expected to set out his ten-year vision for the country. It also follows new Best for Britain research, also based on exclusive YouGov polling, which found that a clear manifesto commitment to full EU membership would be likely to secure the most support from the voters Labour needs to persuade to back them at the next general election. 

Respondents were surveyed online, and required to indicate which UK-EU relationship they would most like to see the UK government propose, of the following choices: EU membership; the Single Market (SM); the Customs Union (CU), the UK government’s current position (a closer relationship within the government’s red lines of not joining the SM or CU); the status quo (aka the UK’s existing Trade and Co-Operation Agreement [TCA] with the EU); or to loosen ties. They had to select one answer, or could say they did not know. Pollsters at YouGov then conducted an MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) analysis, in which results were projected across all constituencies in Great Britain. 

Key findings include:

• EU membership being the most popular UK-EU relations policy in all bar four (628) parliamentary seats in Great Britain, on central estimates, including in Makerfield, the Prime Minister’s seat,
• The four Reform UK seats where it did not top the rankings, on central estimates – Ashfield, Clacton, Great Yarmouth and Boston and Skegness – ‘Don’t Know’ was the most popular answer,
• Across the country, people were most likely to say they want the UK government to propose the UK’s membership of the EU, with more than a third (35%) choosing this,
• In comparison, only a fraction backed “halfway houses” such as a Single Market (6%) or Customs Union (5%), putting them even behind further loosening ties with the EU (11%), or maintaining the status quo (8%),
• Support was strongest among Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green Party current supporters, with 55%, 56% and 67% respectively choosing the membership option,
• The constituency with the strongest support for EU membership was Bristol Central, and support was also significant in Scotland, with seven of the top ten ranking seats,
• And in Burnham’s own seat of Makerfield almost three in ten (29%) of people opted for EU membership, with ‘Don’t Know’ in second place on less than a quarter (24%).

Analysis of the results shows that there was “significant unity of purpose” observed “among the entire left of British politics”, while the right was “starkly divided on EU relations”. The ‘left-bloc’ drove support for EU membership in all bar four GB parliamentary constituencies, and every British nation and region. Overall regional support for restoring the UK’s EU membership never fell below 32% (in the East Midlands and Yorkshire) and reached 39% in London. 

Beyond this, evaluation of the MRP by researchers at Best for Britain revealed a “cautionary tale”. For Burnham’s administration, a successful UK-EU reset and then “setting the UK on a trajectory to EU membership will likely be a key pillar of political support for the new UK government”. Proposals offering a “halfway house”, such as a Customs Union, or the EU Single Market, drew limited support from Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green Party supporters, and were even less popular with Conservative or Reform UK backers.

Campaigners are stressing that there is a “clear opportunity” for Burnham’s government to “achieve a much closer relationship with the EU, with all the economic and security benefits it would bring, at the next UK general election”.

Tom Brufatto, Policy and Research Director at Best for Britain, said: 

“From the Prime Minister’s very own backyard, via the car manufacturers of the Midlands and the white cliffs of the Kent coastline, voters in virtually every single British constituency now back the UK restoring our place at the heart of Europe as their top choice on UK-EU relations, offering progressive politicians of all parties a roadmap to galvanise their support and see off the radical right threat from Reform UK.

“It’s no wonder, when independent economic research sets out how membership could boost our economy by some £92bn, at the very least, funding the redistributive growth agenda Andy Burnham has staked his premiership on.” 

Christine Jardine, Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West, said: 

“It is clear now that Brexit was a massive economic mistake and if we want to fix Scotland’s and the UK’s economy and make living conditions easier, we must repair the damage that has wreaked havoc in our communities.

“The only way to clean up the mess is by getting far closer to our European allies; a future voters support and one our stability and security depend on.”