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Labour can win back Yorkshire and the Humber voters with a pledge to restore the UK’s European Union (EU) membership in its next general election manifesto, a new megapoll has found.
The Labour Party faces a near total wipeout in Yorkshire and the Humber, a new megapoll conducted by YouGov and commissioned by Best for Britain has found, if they fail to go further on EU relations in their next manifesto which could see them hold onto nearly two thirds [63%] of seats won in 2024.
It comes as Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares for his first UK-EU summit in Brussels on November 20, where he will set out the government’s next steps in considering the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU, and in light of his comments that “any fundamental change to this relationship would be for the public to decide and a matter for the next Parliament”. The findings also follow Yorkshire voters resoundingly rejecting the Labour Party at the 2026 local elections, with Labour losing 210 councillors: its single biggest loss of elected representatives in the region since 1974.
In this new scenario for Burnham, Labour could see their parliamentary seats in Yorkshire and the Humber – where the party has traditionally had a stronghold – slashed from 43 to just 7. That is unless Labour’s next manifesto goes further than their previous commitment on EU relations (where they promised to pursue closer relations without rejoining the Single Market, Customs Union, or EU itself), analysis of the MRP modelling has revealed. If it pledged to restore the UK’s membership of the trading bloc ahead of the next general election, the party would hold onto 27 (63%) of the 43 seats won in 2024, on central estimates, the study found. YouGov polling found that, had an election taken place in June, while Starmer was still Prime Minister and under current red lines, Labour’s overall national vote share of 18% could have translated into them losing 36 seats in Yorkshire and the Humber.
The new seat-level MRP model assessed the impact of four hypothetical Labour policies on EU relations on Westminster voting intention, to estimate how it might affect the outcome of a general election, across a sample of almost 14,000 GB adults. The four policies tested were: (1) seeking a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining the Customs Union, Single Market or the EU itself; (2) rejoining the Customs Union; (3) rejoining the EU Single Market; (4) rejoining the EU. The report also includes the results of a standard Westminster voting intention (WVI) question.
Best for Britain layered additional analysis on top of the central estimates of YouGov’s constituency-level MRP projections to reflect the practicalities of a general election (including tactical voting) and address the political and methodological limitations of hypothetical policy questions.
The data supports new Best for Britain research, also based on exclusive YouGov polling, which found that a clear manifesto commitment to full EU membership would secure the most support from the voters Labour needs to persuade to back them at the next general election.
Campaigners are highlighting the political necessity of an EU membership pledge ahead of the next general election to secure a Labour-led government and keep Reform UK from holding the balance of power.
Paul Davies, Labour MP for Colne Valley, said:
“Brexit has had a lasting negative effect not only in the Colne Valley but in the wider Yorkshire region – and across the UK.
“The Labour government has pledged lasting change and growth in every postcode, and a return to Europe can help deliver this. This report shows there is a clear appetite for this path amongst voters; all options should therefore be on the table, including full EU membership.”
Tom Brufatto, Policy and Research Director at Best for Britain and lead author, which campaigns for the UK to restore its EU membership, said:
“This research shows how vital pledging to restore our EU membership is to win back the trust of voters – who have long made it clear they, rightly, see their and the UK’s future back at the heart of Europe.
“The Prime Minister must continue to be ambitious in our relationship with our allies and neighbours – a policy overwhelmingly popular with voters and key for Labour to retain a majority of its seats in Yorkshire and the Humber.”