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What is the Iceland EU referendum asking?
The referendum is not asking Icelanders whether they want to join the EU. Rather, the referendum asks voters whether their country should resume accession negotiations with Brussels, the formal process by which a country and the EU set out the conditions for admission into the bloc.
Despite a suspension of negotiations in 2013, Iceland’s EU membership application submitted in 2009 was never formally withdrawn.
The exact question being put to voters for a yes or no answer is: “Should Iceland reopen accession negotiations with the European Union?”
When is Iceland’s EU referendum?
The referendum is to be held on Saturday, August 29, 2026.
What are the opinion polls saying?
The opinion polls are currently neck and neck, with only 3% separating the Yes and No campaigns.
However, unlike the result of the Brexit referendum, it is the pro-EU side of the argument that seems to have the upper hand – with 51.5% of respondents supporting reopening negotiations compared to 48.5% who oppose.
What is Iceland’s current relationship with the EU?
In 1992, Iceland joined Norway, Liechtenstein, Sweden, Austria and Finland in signing the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement with the EU. This meant that the four freedoms of the movement of goods, services, capital and workers were extended to these six nations.
Iceland’s membership of the EEA means that, while not a full member of the EU, Iceland’s goods and services must adhere to the rules and regulations of the EU’s internal market. This means that Iceland is known as a ‘rule-taker’, rather than a ‘rule-maker’.
Iceland is also a full member of the Schengen Travel Area and has agreed to adhere to the EU’s climate change policies.
Why is Iceland not already in the EU?
Being outside the EU means Iceland can negotiate its own trade policies and sits outside the EU’s Common Foreign & Security Policy and the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union.
Opponents of further European integration worry that EU membership would threaten Iceland’s monopoly on its own waters. Fishing remains a core part of Icelandic identity: 4% of the population work in this industry which created around 8% of the country’s GDP in 2024. Remarkably, almost 40% of all Icelandic goods exports come from the fishing industry.
However, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos has recently suggested that Brussels is open to reaching a compromise on the issue, writing on Bluesky that “accession negotiations always reflect the specific realities of each candidate country”.
What are the arguments for Iceland being a member of the EU?
As post-Brexit Britain found out to our cost, isolationism is a poor bet in an era of tariffs and protectionism. Proponents of Iceland joining the EU suggest that one of the biggest benefits of membership will be the eventual adoption of the euro, which the OECD argues would bring down inflation and ease international trade for the small Atlantic island.
But for some it is security, not the economy, that is pushing them closer to Brussels. Situated in a stretch of the Atlantic known as the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap, the country’s location is of great geopolitical importance. To the country’s west lies neighbouring Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory which US President Donald Trump has consistently threatened to acquire, or even invade.
Ears were pricked in Reykjavik when the current US President repeatedly referred to Greenland as Iceland when espousing his ambitions over the Danish sovereign territory in his infamous Davos address.
To the country’s east and north lies an ocean regularly used by the Russian navy. Supporters of EU membership argue that closer integration with the EU will further protect Iceland from any potential Russian aggression, in an era when their membership of NATO is no longer seen as sufficient following Trump’s attacks on the treaty.
How would the EU benefit from Icelandic accession?
What Iceland offers to the EU is clear, according to the country’s Prime Minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, who suggests that, given the changing geopolitical situation across the West, the EU is “aware that the world is changing”. Frostadóttir argues that a lot of European countries are increasingly focused on the Arctic and understand they “need increased flexibility to stay modern”. Icelanders hope that their unique geographical position will give them increased leverage in an ever more uncertain world.
With our own referendum now ten years behind us, let’s hope Iceland does not repeat Britain’s mistake in choosing isolation over collaboration. Iceland’s Prime Minister is right that the world is a much more fraught and dangerous place than it was only a few years ago – and correctly recognises that policy must change with the circumstances.