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A commitment to full EU membership would secure the most support from the voters Andy Burnham needs to persuade at the next general election, a major new study has found.
Enthusiasm to vote Labour ramps up the more ambitious the party promises to be on Europe, with a policy of full EU membership securing the most support from the voters Andy Burnham needs to persuade at the next general election, a major new study has found.
The landmark polling, which assessed how likely supporters of all political parties would be to vote for Labour – based on a sliding scale of policy positions on the UK’s relationship with the EU – was carried out by YouGov across a sample of more than 10,000 GB adults, and commissioned by Best for Britain. The findings emerge at a crucial time with Labour’s policy on Europe being shaped ahead of the next UK-EU summit and the party’s conference later this month, after which Prime Minister Andy Burnham is expected to set out on his ten-year vision for the country.
Respondents were randomly split into groups and shown one scenario, and differences in opinion between groups were measured. Polled options ranged from:
- Further loosening ties with the EU – damaging our economy,
- Sticking to Labour’s current ‘red lines’ of seeking a closer relationship with the EU, without joining a customs union, the single market, or seeking EU membership,
- Joining a customs union or the single market – offering us minor economic benefits,
- Pledging to restore our EU membership in full, which independent econometric research has shown would transform our economy with at least a £92bn GDP uplift.
Analysis shows all EU relationship options beyond Labour’s 2024 manifesto red lines which take the UK closer to the EU increased respondents’ enthusiasm to support the Labour Party – with a promise to restore the UK’s full EU membership, the option which most significantly increased support by a full 7% points across all voters in Great Britain.
Crucially, the surge in support for Labour was driven by key groups the party will need to persuade in order to rebuild the voting coalition which delivered a landslide at the last general election. Among respondents who voted Labour in 2024, and have since switched allegiance to the Lib Dems, the Green Party, the SNP or Plaid Cymru, a pledge to EU membership increased their likelihood to vote Labour by twice the average (14% points above the baseline) – while Labour to Green Party switchers alone recorded a 16% point increase in likelihood of supporting Labour again. Willingness to vote Labour among current Lib Dem and Green Party supporters overall increased by 21 and 18 percentage points each, based on a Labour EU membership pledge.
The study also found that including a commitment to EU membership in hypothetical future Labour Party manifestos drastically increased the likelihood of voters choosing it. Where a hypothetical manifesto included a promise to explore all options for closer EU relations, including full membership, it successfully maintained the support of Labour’s 2024 coalition, and even broadened its electoral appeal. Among voters who have lost faith in Labour since 2024 but remain within the progressive ‘left-bloc’, the most popular manifesto policy was to explicitly commit to EU membership, the pollsters identified.
Meanwhile, among Conservative and Reform UK supporters, the polling found no evidence that any Labour policy pledge on the EU increased their likelihood to vote for the party – even where Labour pledged to further loosen ties with the EU. Analysis suggests these groups remain firmly “intractable” for Labour, with attempts to persuade them looking increasingly unlikely to succeed.
These fresh findings come after independent econometric research found re-entering the trading bloc to be alongside our closest allies would supercharge the UK economy via a GDP boost of £92bn – at the very least – while vastly eclipsing the impact of any other policy lever, including six times all the UK’s post-Brexit trade deals combined. Economic benefits would also be cumulative and – outside the capital – felt most strongly in Britain’s former industrial manufacturing heartlands: addressing the very regional inequality which Burnham has vowed to rebalance, with “good growth in every postcode and hope in every heart”, as well as shielding the UK economy from international economic shocks and funding a vital increase in defence spending to keep Brits safe.
Campaigners are now highlighting that to maximise its chances of winning the next election, Labour should prioritise galvanising its existing supporters and wooing disaffected progressive voters to place their trust in the party, by pledging to campaign for the UK’s renewed EU membership at the next general election.
Tom Brufatto, Executive Director of Policy and Research, and lead author of the report, said:
“This report clearly indicates that an ambitious offer on EU relations would provide Labour with a significant electoral opportunity. By putting EU membership on the table at the next election, Labour can rebuild a winning electoral coalition capable of seeing off the threat of Reform UK.
“With a new Prime Minister, determined to prioritise redistributive growth and to restore a sense of hope to the country, this research sets out the roadmap to the party’s recovery, and provides the political piece to complete the economic jigsaw smashed to bits by Brexit.”
Neil Kinnock, former Labour Party leader and Vice-President of the European Commission, said:
“This comprehensive study should give Labour the confidence to loudly state what increasing numbers of people across Britain already know to be the patriotic course. Brexit, as the Prime Minister says, has inflicted serious harm on our country. Our future lies in rebuilding our proper place in our Continent. That must be our ‘special relationship’.
“The case for putting membership of the European Union in Labour’s next manifesto is necessary to repair the damage done by Brexit and, vitally, regain the full economic, political and cultural opportunities, influence and trust that were so needlessly lost. Public opinion and world realities make this advance essential. I hope that Labour will lead it.”
Rachel Blake, Labour MP for Cities of London and Westminster, said:
“Since 2024 the Labour Government has made huge strides in resetting the relationship with our nearest and most important trading partners and allies in the EU.
“This report is a welcome piece of evidence that we should continue to keep all options on the table, to help keep our country both secure and prosperous.”