This week it was Kieran Mullan and Tracey Crouch. Last week, Kwasi Kwarteng and Nickie Aiken. Who will be the next Tory MP to resign, Mark Francois? Greg Hands? Or maybe even Jeremy Hunt? A progressive can dream. The long-form letters have been steadily dripping into local party Chairmens’ pigeon holes, much to the shagrin, and reportedly against the advice of CCHQ, and it isn’t hard to see why.
For over a year, polls have signalled total and devastating defeat for the Conservative Party at the next General Election. This assessment has only been bolstered by the results of yesterday’s by-elections, in which Labour won Wellingborough on a staggering 28.5% swing, and Kingswood on a 16.4% swing. Another double-defeat for Sunak; upping the grand total of seats lost on his watch to seven, or around one for every two months he’s had in office.
For many, these results are a harbinger of something seismic to come at the next General Election. If Labour were again able to overturn sizable Conservative majorities, why can't they do it again later in the year? Predictably, it's not that simple. Beyond the usual by-election caveats, the results of these two races mask a much closer contest to come.
"Beyond the usual by-election caveats, the results of these two races mask a much closer contest to come"
By-elections have typically lower turnout than General Elections because people know the result won’t change who sits in Number 10. And these two were no different, with just 37% of voters turning out in Kingswood and 38% in Wellingborough. For the same reason, people also feel emboldened to cast protest votes. It’s safer for a Conservative voter to give the Government a kicking when they know it has little effect on national policy - an exception being last year’s Uxbridge contest where a poorly informed debate on ULEZ now hampers UK wide decarbonisation efforts. Wellingborough in particular had constituents keen to vent their anger over their former MP's alleged misconduct. By-elections also pour intense media attention and party resources into a single constituency, unreflective of a General Election.
Unlike the fiercely fought contests in last year’s Mid-Beds and Selby by-elections, reports suggested that Conservative activists in Kingswood and Wellingborough all but gave up campaigning. At the General Election, Conservative candidates, and their deep-pocketed donors, will actually put in some effort.
"At the General Election, Conservative candidates, and their deep-pocketed donors, will actually put in some effort."
And while polls normally tighten after an election is called, what’s different this time is the unusually high number of undecideds who could make this effect more decisive. Currently 15% of people still don’t know how they will vote and significantly, Best for Britain’s recent megapoll showed only 16 points separating Labour and the Conservatives. Worryingly for Labour, our repeated polling and analysis shows these “don’t knows” look a lot like shy Tories and that they overwhelmingly intend to vote.
But the biggest difference could be if Nigel Farage slips back to his old habit of selectively standing down candidates in competitive seats to help-out the Tories, as he did with the Brexit Party in 2019 and UKIP in 2017, after promising not to. With his heart set on a post-election return to the Tory fold - a period of reconstruction and soul-searching, ripe for maximum populist damage - there’s every incentive for him to lay the groundwork by saving the hides of a few Tory MPs.
"But the biggest difference could be if Nigel Farage slips back to his old habit of selectively standing down candidates"
If such a stitchup were to occur at a General Election in Wellingborough for example, and the lion’s share of Reform's vote went to the Tories, with progressive parties failing to do something similar, Best for Britain’s constituency level polling shows that the Conservative candidate would win. The same goes for North East Somerset and Hanham; a successor constituency to the soon to be abolished Kingswood. In this case, it would mean Jacob Rees-Mogg holding onto his seat.
Rinse and repeat across Britain and you’ll see the issue. Yes, Sunak is on course for defeat, but Farage could be the difference between Tory electoral apocalypse and some of its worst elements surviving to pollute our society with more divisive populism. For anyone who had the displeasure of watching the Popular Conservative conference last week, you'll have a flavour of quite how toxic this could be.
"Farage could be the difference between Tory electoral apocalypse and some of its worst elements surviving to pollute our society"
The launch of this far from popular group served as a timely reminder of the urgency of ensuring that Mogg and those like him go at the next General Election. Similar to the Republican Party in the USA, populists within the Conservative party will further radicalise their party even in opposition, moving it again to the right, focused on both increasing divisions in the UK and removing democratic safeguards.
In lieu of formal guidance or agreements from opposition parties, harpooning this threat will depend on the nous, understanding and appetite of ordinary punters to choose strategically. To this end, tactical voting operations like GetVoting could be pivotal in determining the outcome in closely fought races at the next General Election.
This time next year, Rishi Sunak may be sipping a Mexican coke poolside in Palo Alto, but those of us who care about building a more tolerant, prosperous and democratic future in Britain need to worry about what comes next for the Conservative Party. Their hands are rarely far from the levers of power and voting tactically can help extract some of the poison from their ranks.
Martha Harrison / Press Manager, Best for Britain
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